Neural Network Story

So you want to know what a neural network is? I'll use a basketball analogy to help explain. Shaquille O’Neal, a dominate center in the NBA, is a notoriously poor free throw shooter. Let's say Shaq's team, the Miami Heat, is playing the Dallas Mavericks. The Heat are down by one, there are 18 seconds left to play and Shaq gets fouled. He moves to the line, and sweat is dripping from his forehead. Your buddy sitting next to you in the stands pulls out a thousand bucks. He's a die-hard Heat fan and he's convinced Shaq won't let him down. He offers even odds that Shaq will make both free throws. I'm going to give you a chance to ask a few people what they think...

1) You ask the knowledgeable guy sitting in front of you.

Answer... "Shaq is hot; he made his last free throw. I think it was just before half time. Yep, he's going to make 'em both."

2) You ask Shaq's coach.

Answer... "I'll kick his butt if he doesn't make 'em. I just hope he doesn't kill me in the process."

3) You ask the TV announcer, he has all the stats right in front of him.

Answer... "Shaq is shooting 61% from the line this season but I don't know how to do the math to figure the odds on him making two in a row."

4) You ask the Math Professor sitting next to the TV announcer.

Answer... "Since Shaq is shooting 61%, the odds on making two in a row are calculated like this: .61 x .61 = .3721. He has a 37.21% chance of making two in a row."

5) You grab your cell phone and call your next door neighbor. This guy doesn't know squat about basketball but he helped his kid build a neural network for a math club project. They just happened to pick free throws as the topic and trained it to evaluate them. His database is loaded with information about every free throw Shaq has ever attempted. This is an extensive database; it shows how many minutes Shaq has played when each free throw was attempted. It also notes if Shaq's team was winning or losing and by how much when each free throw was attempted. The guy feeds some info into his neural network. He tells it Shaq has played 39 minutes in tonight's game and his team is down by one point. The neural network kicks out a prediction two seconds later.

Answer... "Shaq has a 21.789% chance of making two in a row. My neural network tells me the more minutes Shaq plays the worse he shoots. Not sure but I guess he gets tired. It's also saying when the score is very close and it is very late in the game Shaq is lucky if he even hits the rim. I guess Shaq also tenses up when the pressure is on."

Now, are you going to take the bet and which of these five guys are you going to believe the most?

HINT - if you don't take the bet you are a Low Risk Investor. However, there is still hope for you if you believe your neighbor is the real free throw expert... :-)

BTW - Shaq missed both free throws and the Mav's won the game. I live in Rockwall, a suburb of Dallas. I'm a die-hard Mav's fan. Since I'm making this little story up there is no way in hell Shaq is going to make those free throws... ha!

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